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Nanos holds the Cons. lead at 4.

Well, Nanos keep the Conservative lead at 4, but the regionals still show a lot of interesting things:

– The Liberals have jumped back into a 14 point lead over the Cons. in Atlantic Canada, after a dead head yesterday (Liberals +8, Cons. -6). This has been one of the most volatile regions for party support – at least in the Nanos polls.

– The NDP are now in a MOE tie in Quebec with the Liberals and Cons.

– The Liberals continue to hold a double digit lead in Ontario.

– The Conservatives have reached 50% in “the West”. I presume Albertans must be getting angry the rest of […]

Polls tighten further: Cons lead in Nanos down to 3!

Dare I say it, the Conservatives are in real danger now; forget their hopes for a majority, they are in peril of losing the government altogether, IF the trends hold that Nanos is showing today:

CP 34%, Lib 31%, NDP 18%, BQ 11%, GP 6%

Pollster Nik Nanos comments on the new numbers:

The trend lines say it all. We now have a tight race between the Conservatives and the Liberals. Phase one of the narrowing of the gap featured a drop in Tory support in Quebec. The last three days now see a softening of Conservative support in Ontario – potentially an “echo effect” from Quebec. Even if Ontarians are not as motivated on culture as Quebecers, the media coverage out of Quebec likely has an impact. Sunday night’s English coverage of the demonstration of artists in Montreal broadcast across the country was quite something.

Looking at the regionals, and to show what Nik is talking about, the Liberals have now taken a 9 point lead in Ontario and have reached the 40% mark for the first time in quite awhile. While the Cons have recovered a bit in Quebec, the BQ has amazingly shot up to 46%. There even appears to be mdoest recovery out West for the Liberals.. though where is hard to determine in a regional poll.

By the way, Decima is also showing the race to be closing – they have the Con lead on the Liberals down to 5 points., and they mirror the Liberal resurgence and the Con. drop in Ontario and to a lesser extent in Quebec. The difference with their poll seems to be that they have the Cons in a 1 point MOE (Margin of Error) lead in the Maritimes, while Nanos has the Liberals leading by 6 there.

This is officially a horse race, folks, which as I said at the start shows the Harper government in real danger of losing their governing status – and that’s probably why Harper seemed (to me anyway) so angry and even desperate today at his platform press conference (flip-flopping on the film tax credits for example and now saying he’d cancel that, and threatening in effect to re-open the Constitution and abolish the Senate if he and his party doesn’t get his way on Senate “reform”.

More on the Harper “platform” (if it can be called that) later.

Nanos narrows to 4 points. Someone tell the media there’s a race!

Do you like Nanos? I like Nanos:

CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 34, LP 30, NDP 19, BQ 10, GP 7 (ending October 4)

If one looks at the regional polls today, we see that the Liberals have taken a decisive lead in Atlantic Canada (not a particular surprise), but the Liberals have now risen to 28% in Quebec, still behind the BQ by a good margin, but well in front of the Conservatives, who continue their nosedive with a 16% showing today. As for Ontario, the Liberals have narrowly edged ahead here within the MOE, and they’re going to need to extend that gap to have any hope of […]

Nanos says we have a race again: Tory lead down to 5 on Liberals.

Well now, this totally made my day. The Cons. have dropped a couple, and the Liberals have surged with a +4 from yesterday:

Conservatives: 35 (-2) Liberals : 30 (+4) NDP: 18 (-1) Greens: 10 (+1) Bloc Quebecois: 9 (-)

It appears much of the momentum comes in Quebec, where the Liberals are up 7 points from yesterday and into 2nd place in that province, perhaps reflecting Dion’s perceived strong showing and the declared winner of the French language debate. There is also upward movement in Ontario. The Conservatives on the other hand dropped 4 in Quebec and are down 3 in Ontario.

I’m going to guess partly the French […]

Followup: NDP hypothetical official opposition status currently not happening according to Decima or Nanos.

If the latest 2 polls released today from Decima and Nanos are an accurate indicator of a Liberal turnaround in the polls and not just statistical noise, then all we engaged in the last blogpost of mine was some fun hypothetical situations.

Harper showed his “not likable streak” last week that he’s more or less masked this election, and that may have helped to trim the poll gap, as progressive moderate voters got reminded just what a nasty angry mean Conservative Party this is, led by a nasty angry mean leader. That positive momentum for the Liberals needs to be kept up. Keep the gap to single digits […]

Nanos repeats 5 point Cons lead on Liberals today.

Another day, and yet another Nanos poll showing still a slim 5 point Conservative lead over the Liberals.

Nik Nanos assessment:

Results of today’s CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives continue their five-point lead over the Liberals at 35% national support. The Liberals stand at 30%, followed by the NDP at 22%, the Bloc Québécois at 7% and the Green Party at 6%. In Ontario, the Conservatives have slipped below the Liberals, while the NDP is gaining momentum in the province, and also in Quebec where the race remains tight between the Conservatives and the Bloc.

The Cons have also slipped into 3rd place into Atlantic Canada (within the MOE) in this new tracking poll as well, I should note.

Right now, the Conservative supporters are screaming “outlier!” on the Nanos poll, and it’s getting ignored by the pundits for their own polls which shows more sizable Conservative leads. Perhaps it is the outlier, but Ottlib makes a good point at their blog – a lot of the parties statements don’t jive with this being a non-race at this point:

According to all of the polls except Nanos the Liberals are toast. They are done, history. Yet today we had Mr. Harper pandering to his base with a silly crime and punishment announcement, Mr. Rae telling voters that we have to end vote splitting on the left to beat the Conservatives, and Mr. Layton stating that he would be willing to form a coalition with the Liberals.

So, Mr. Harper, why are you pandering to your base? You apparently have this election in the bag. You should be talking to everybody but your base at this point to push you over the top to a majority.

Mr. Rae, why are you even talking about a Liberal victory at all? Mr. Duffy et. al. says the Liberals are done so you should not be talking about actually winning this thing. You should instead be plotting strategy for the leadership convention to replace Mr. Dion. C’mon, get with the program!

Mr. Layton, why are you talking about a coalition? According to Peter Donolo and Bruce Anderson you are going to be fighting for second place in this election. You are on the cusp of making the NDP the Official Opposition. Now is not the time to talk coalition. You should be fighting to put yourself over that hump.

At this time in the election campaign there is a massive disconnect with what the media is telling us about it and how the various campaigns are pursuing their respective campaigns. None of them are acting as if the Liberals are way down and possibly facing third party status. Although things can change in a heartbeat during an election campaign the actions of the various parties seems to indicate that this thing is alot closer than we are being lead to believe.

If these numbers were to hold, you’d not see much difference in the current house then you would now.. which is why I was pleased to see this transcript of what Jack Layton said this morning on Canada AM:

Seamus: AS YOU SAID, YOU KNOW YOU’RE TARGETING– NO DIFFERENT BETWEEN THESE TWO OLD PARTIES. YOU ARE TARGETING THE CONSERVATIVES. YOU SAID WE CANNOT HAVE MORE OF THIS KIND OF GOVERNMENT. DO YOU BELIEVE SO STRONGLY IN THAT THAT YOU WOULD ENTERTAIN EVEN THE NOTION OF ENTERING A COALITION WITH THE LIBERALS IN ORDER TO KEEP THE CONSERVATIVES OUT OF PARTY?

Hon. Jack Layton: I HAVE WORKED WITH ANY OTHER PARTY. MAYBE IT GOES BACK TO MY DAYS ON MUNICIPAL COUNCIL. YOU ROLE UP YOUR SLEEVES AND YOU TRY TO SOLVE A PROBLEM. RIGHT NOW THE PROBLEM WE HAVE IS STEPHEN HARPER AND HIS CONSERVATIVES. THEY ARE TAKING THE COUNTRY DOWN THE WRONG PATH. THEY ARE MUCH TOO CLOSE TO GEORGE BUSH-STYLE FOREIGN POLICY WHEN IT COMES TO THE WAR IN MY VIEW.

Seamus: IF YOU ADDED UP THE SEATS THAT YOU COULD GAIN AND THE THE SEATS THAT THE LIBERALS– THAT OUTNUMBERED THE CONSERVATIVES, WOULD YOU CONSIDER A COALITION?

Hon. Jack Layton: HOPEFULLY I’LL SIT DOWN IN THE PRIME MINISTER’S OFFICE AND PULL TOGETHER THE LEADERSHIP OF MY PARTY AND SAY HOW CAN WE BEST GET THAT CHILD CARE PROGRAM THAT WE COMMITTED TO? HOW CAN WE GET THE DOCTORS AND NURSES DRAINED AND DEAL WITH THESE WAIT TIMES?

Seamus: BY WHATEVER MEANS NECESSARY.

Hon. Jack Layton: LET’S MAKE IT HAPPEN.

I’m pleased to hear he’s willing to support the Liberals in a coalition government to take down the Conservative Party (H/T: APOV for the CTV story). I’ve also heard Gilles Duceppes say he’d prefer a Liberal government as well. A Grand Coalition forming perhaps? The ABC movement (Anyone But Conservatives) being taken to heart by the opposition parties? Jack Layton admitting the only way to stop the Harperites is to work with the Liberals instead of tearing at them as he has the past couple of years and support a Dion-led government? Interesting times, folks.

I’ll repeat what I said yesterday: Canada’s most accurate pollster in 2006 and in the Ontario election of 2007 has said this election is far from over.. and the parties are certainly also acting as that to be also the case.

The Nanos tracking poll tightens to 5 points.

The Sunday Nanos tracking poll shows another drop in Conservative support today – down from 11 on Friday, to 9 on Saturday to now just a lead of 5 points on the Liberals today. Are the new Liberal ads – 2 of them that are very tough on Harper – causing people to reconsider their support for Harper perhaps?

Results of today’s CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives leading in national support at 36%. Just 5 points behind are the Liberals at 31%, followed by the NDP at 20% and the Bloc Québécois and the Green Party tied at 7%. In Central Canada, the deadlock between the Conservatives and the Liberals in Ontario and the Conservatives, Liberals and Bloc in Quebec continues.

It appears the Liberals have picked up some support in all areas across the country, while the Conservatives have dropped – most notably in Quebec. Now, I’ll say the tricky thing with daily tracking polls is you could see a completely different result tomorrow, but at least according to Nanos, the race, my friends, is far from over.

Nanos Poll: Gap narrows to 6 points, Liberals release new ad.

There are a lot of polls out there. You also have a lot of newspapers declaring this and that over their particular poll they’ve sponsored without mentioning a thing about other polls that may contradict their specific pollster’s narrative. See the doom and gloom predictions of the Toronto Star and Jim Travers in this past Saturday edition for evidence of that.

Well, Nanos has come out with their tracking poll today, and it shows a tightening of the race down to 6 points between the Liberals and the Cons, down from 8 points the past 2 days. Note also the big undecided vote in that poll – this election is still in play, despite what some in the media would have you think. Decima is still showing a good lead for the Cons, but their poll is also trending well for the Liberals (they have gained back 6 points against the Cons in the past 2 Decima polls), and as BigCityLib and Steve say, the Conservatives policies and such may be coming under greater scrutiny now by the electorate… and the warm and fuzzy sweater ads may be wearing off.

With all that said, the timing of this new ad below to be played in the English language market by the Liberals is well-timed, in my view. It’s a little harder in tone, which I think is going to be necessary, but exudes a positive frame at the end.  Keep hitting them where it hurts, as Warren K. opines today, and don’t be afraid to hit hard.

UPDATE @ 3:52 pm: Warren approves of the new ad.

Bad (pre)election optics for Harper and the Conservatives.

Let’s list those bad optics as I see them:

– Two polls come out yesterday from Decima and the election guru, Nanos, showing the Liberals leading within the margin of error. Both breakdowns in regional vote would lead to a Liberal minority government if they were to translate to Election Day.

– You have the tainted meat scandal; “Deli-Gate”, as some are calling it. Up to 15 people possibly dead, with the Health Minister Tony Clement in Denver not bothering to return to address the crisis, all while cracking food jokes and meeting with American Big Oil over the Alberta tar-sands. Plus, a document revealed to show that the Conservatives […]

Nanos: Liberals, Cons. in dead heat still.

I am pleased to see a Nanos poll out so soon after the last one he did – mainly because of all the contradictory polling results we’ve seen since then. The latest results? A dead heat between the Liberals and Conservatives, and the NDP falling quite substantially:

Federal Ballot: Liberal 34%(+1), Conservative 34%(+3), NDP 14%(-5), Bloc 10%(nc), Green 8%(nc)

At this particular point, the Liberals compromise on Afghanistan they crafted has not hurt their position from the last Nanos poll, while the NDP has surprisingly dropped during this time period. As others have said, perhaps it’s because they and their position has been marginalized by the media over this debate. […]

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