It was a fascinating result last night in Ontario (I say that as someone interested in political science, not as a Liberal partisan). It’s not often in a First-Past-The-Post electoral system that you see a party fall exactly 1 seat short of a majority, but that’s what happened in the case of Dalton McGuinty and The Ontario Liberal Party. Late polls indicating a majority never materialized, or the PC party again had more dedicated partisans coming out to vote. That said, the Liberals were way behind in polls 2-3 months ago, so a win, even if it fell short of a majority, has to be a satisfying outcome for them. […]
To recap in the last day, Ekos, Nanos and Ipsos all indicate the Liberals are close to or will get a majority (Ipsos even went so far as to say in an interview that it’s over – the Liberals will win), while Abacus is showing a tighter Liberal lead that could go either way, and now Angus Reid has released a poll this AM saying they have a slight PC lead.
I’m not sure if that’s it for polls – Harris Decima is the only major pollster I haven’t seen release anything of late – but it appears it will again come down to who can get their committed […]
Only a few days left until Ontario voters get out to vote for their next provincial government, and the polls that came out on the weekend still had a neck and neck race. Ekos released a new poll this AM which seemed to indicate the Liberals were pulling away just a tad, but it still is close.
It will be interesting from my standpoint to see a) which polls were closest (online, IVR or traditional phone) and also the similarities/differences to the Ontario vote from the federal election in May, and what can be learned from that.
Also, with regards to a rumour of Harper coming to Toronto to directly […]
So the Ontario debate has come and gone. There were no real “gotcha moments” last night, which is bad for the opposition parties, since you’d like to get some momentum for your side by laying a licking on the governing Premier. In fact, it appears the immediate public impression from 2 different sources was that Hudak finished last. Ipsos-Reid had Dalton Mcguinty narrowly winning last night, while a second poll from CP24 in Toronto did have NDP leader Andrea Horvath narrowly leading Mcguinty. In both cases, Hudak was last with 25%.
He had better hope that’s not a provincial wide trend. It can’t be too encouraging when the Toronto Sun […]
We enter the Ontario leaders debate tonight with a new poll from Ekos released today showing the Liberals with a 4 point lead over the PC’s and the NDP in the mid-20’s. According to threehundredeight.com, combined with the findings of another poll release last night by Abacus (with their new polling methodology), that would lead to a bare Liberal majority.
Therefore, I would submit the pressure is on the opposition parties’ leaders to perform well. Hudak needs to do so to salvage what has been a fairly miserable campaign for him (losing a massive lead in less then 3 months to now possibly losing the election outright). Horwath on the […]
Very interesting – the Forum Research president apparently paid for this poll out of his own pocket. It’s a massive sample that shows a deadlocked Ontario legislature if it holds to election day:
A Forum Research survey of 40,750 people — one of the largest polling samples in Canadian political history — has the two parties separated by only 107 respondents, each holding 35 per cent. (14,064 said they will vote Liberal, while 13,957 selected the Conservatives.) Meanwhile, the New Democrats were at 23 per cent and the Green Party at 5 per cent.
For those wondering, this was an IVR poll – an interactive voice response one, which basically […]
I’m of course talking about the anti-Wind turbines folks, better known as Wind Concerns Ontario. They’re in the background of the Ontario election – allying themselves with the Conservatives who they feel will nix the Wind turbines project if they’re elected. BigCityLib has a column on them this AM, noting their book’s connection to Energy Probe, the so-called environmental group.
I won’t take credit for the ‘turbine truthers’ label; that comes from Martin Regg Cohn in the Star yesterday:
Until we stop subsidizing the rest of the energy sector, and most of the corporate world, it makes no sense to selectively pull the rug out from under Ontario’s green economy. […]
Lots of stuff to talk about at the beginning of this week:
– The official Fall session for the federal Parliament begins today. The Conservatives and Harper will now begin the process of ending or killing everything they don’t like ideologically – which they now can do with their majority. Most governments try to create a legacy when they’re in government. Harper and his bunch will have a legacy that I predict will end up being remembered for trying to destroy everything that is Liberal or liberal oriented. It will be interesting though to see how effective the Official Opposition New Democrats (without Layton) and the Liberals (without a permanent […]
We had some people wondering if the Harris-Decima poll earlier last week showing an 11 point Liberal lead was an “outlier”. Well, we have 2 new polls out this evening in a matter of minutes within each other, and while the #’s are different, the momentum is confirmed by those polls for the Liberals.
First off, we have a poll from Ipsos-Reid;
According to a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted for Global News, Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals have 38 per cent support, compared to 37 per cent for Tim Hudak and the PC party. The New Democratic Party under Andrea Horwath trail with 24 per cent… the McGuinty campaign has the […]
A couple of things here and there this AM:
Eric Grenier of threehundredeight.com has a piece in the Globe and Mail about his seat projections for the Ontario election. If the election were held today, based on recent poll results, he gives the Conservatives and Liberals each 44 seats, with the NDP holding the balance of power at 19. Yes, that is still a sizable seat loss for the governing Liberals, and it still might put their hold on government in jeopardy if that result were to pan out, but considering where the polls were 2-3 months ago, and considering they seem to have Tim Hudak and the Conservatives on […]