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Dan Gardner nails it, I think, on why the Cons want to ditch the mandatory longform census

Dan’s article in the Ottawa Citizen deals mostly with the Conservative government’s hypocrisy on the Conservatives rationale for removing the mandatory longform census because it’s too intrusive on people’s privacy, while at the same time leaving other more intrusive measures in place. That segues into his theory as to why the Conservatives are doing this move to the longform, and I think he nails it:

Hard-core conservatives have long seen the census as the foundation of left-wing social engineering. And not without some justification. Programs like employment equity couldn’t function without census data. Stephen Harper would love to scrap such programs but he wouldn’t dare under current circumstances. And [...]

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Some people appear to be a bit oversensitive.

I’ve noticed a few folks who appear to be a bit touchy to criticism. or just to simple questions. Here’s a couple of examples: (read more) [...]

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The honeymoon for Ignatieff with the press, public continues.

I’ve seen a couple of indicators of that today. First the polling numbers for the parties:

The (Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey) poll also suggests Conservatives and Liberals are statistically tied, with 31 per cent and 33 per cent support respectively, well ahead of the NDP at 15 per cent, the Greens at 10 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois at 10 per cent.

Then the leadership numbers:

Ignatieff was the only national leader to score a net positive rating, with 43 per cent of respondents saying they had a favourable impression of him versus 32 per cent who had an unfavourable opinion. Harper was viewed favourably by 43 per [...]

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Nanos holds the Cons. lead at 4.

Well, Nanos keep the Conservative lead at 4, but the regionals still show a lot of interesting things:

- The Liberals have jumped back into a 14 point lead over the Cons. in Atlantic Canada, after a dead head yesterday (Liberals +8, Cons. -6). This has been one of the most volatile regions for party support – at least in the Nanos polls.

- The NDP are now in a MOE tie in Quebec with the Liberals and Cons.

- The Liberals continue to hold a double digit lead in Ontario.

- The Conservatives have reached 50% in “the West”. I presume Albertans must be getting angry the rest [...]

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Decima drops the Cons. lead on the Liberals to 4 points today.

The new Harris-Decima poll shows a narrowing gap of 4 between the Cons and the Liberals based on, you guessed it, economic worries:

The latest Canadian Press Harris-Decima poll gave Harper’s Conservatives 31 per cent support across Canada, just four percentage points clear of the resurgent Liberals. The New Democrats had 20 per cent support, with the Greens at 12 and the Bloc Quebecois at eight per cent. Four of every 10 respondents – particularly women, city-dwellers and older, affluent voters – say the roller-coaster markets are causing them to rethink their vote, largely at the expense of the Tories, said Harris-Decima president Bruce Anderson.

The Liberals remain well [...]

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I know Elizabeth May did well in the debates..

..but did she do as well as the polling firm Ekos has her and the Greens in Ontario?

Liberals 33, Cons. 33, NDP 20,  Green 15

I think thats the largest # I’ve seen the Greens have in Ontario from any polling firm. If you’ve been following the Ekos daily poll, they would seem to be pulling it from all parties.  So the question would be a) How accurate is Ekos methodology, and b) Is it hard or soft support for the Greens? With regards to the 2nd question, Ekos said they found that 74% of Green Party voters would “not likely” change their vote, while 17% said “likely” [...]

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KLRvu polling methodology update

Well, we’ve had quite a few of blogposts on the KLRvu pollsters and their polling numbers for Guelph throughout the blogosphere (including yours truly), and even one by David Akin looking at them. All this publicity no doubt thrills Allan Bruinooge, the head of the polling company, to no end.

I mentioned on Friday that I’d written the polling firm asking them of the 3396 households they polled in Guelph, how many of those refused to answer, hung up, etc. I received this response in email from Mr Bruinooge, and to be fair to him, I’ll quote his reply in full. He explains that the 3396 figure is the [...]

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On push-polling.

Well, I’m presuming a poll claiming to show a majority of Canadians opposed to Dr. Henry Morgentaler receiving the Order of Canada was done by the anti-abortion movement as explained over here at Birth Pangs (I prefer giving them the link traffic) because they were horrified at the fact that 2 legitimate pollsters did polling that showed a solid majority of Canadians (by over 2-1 numbers) approved of Dr. Henry Morgentaler receiving the Order of Canada.

When faced with polling done by those pollsters done with no axe to grind vs one that has been asked by a group with an obvious agenda, you always go with the established [...]

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Giants stomping on anthills.

I didn’t see the original last paragraph in question of this blogpiece here which caused a senior VP at Ipsos to threaten legal action against Paulitics: Paul’s Socialist Investigations, (it was changed “gratuitously” (without admission of guilt or wrongdoing) to appease the Ipsos folks to avoid legal action), so I can’t say whether the fellow had a case in saying it was libelous. That said, I do find what he’s been leaving in the comments section over here with regards to this article at Saskboy’s place to be rather …well.. unbecoming of a senior Vice-President of a major polling company. There must be a lot of free time at [...]

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