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Forum polls: looking grim for OLP in the byelections

New polling done by Forum released today shows the OLP may only be winning 1 seat of the five byelections this August 1:

The Progressive Conservatives are well ahead in two longtime Liberal strongholds — one in Toronto and the other former premier Dalton McGuinty’s Ottawa riding, according to a Forum Research poll…According to the survey of 689 Etobicoke—Lakeshore residents, Holyday has 47 per cent, Toronto city councillor Peter Milczyn, 40 per cent, NDP’s P.C. Choo, 7 per cent, Green candidate Angela Salewsky, 5 per cent and others, 1 per cent.. In Ottawa South, where 631 people were surveyed, 48 per cent supported Young, Fraser had 34 per cent, the […]

On phone polling vs internet panels

An interesting article from the CBC talking with the BC Liberals internal pollster, who predicted a Liberal Majority with 48 seats, and was off by only 2 (and by 2 more – they eneded up with 50, pending any recounts).

Why was his polling better then every other public domain pollster? He says it’s because he used traditional phone polling, not these internet panels:

Pantazopoulos says where his findings differ from the other pollsters is that he relies entirely on traditional telephone polling rather than online research. He says that approach allows him to access a wider swath of the electorate. “Every resident of the province with a phone line […]

Dan Gardner nails it, I think, on why the Cons want to ditch the mandatory longform census

Dan’s article in the Ottawa Citizen deals mostly with the Conservative government’s hypocrisy on the Conservatives rationale for removing the mandatory longform census because it’s too intrusive on people’s privacy, while at the same time leaving other more intrusive measures in place. That segues into his theory as to why the Conservatives are doing this move to the longform, and I think he nails it:

Hard-core conservatives have long seen the census as the foundation of left-wing social engineering. And not without some justification. Programs like employment equity couldn’t function without census data. Stephen Harper would love to scrap such programs but he wouldn’t dare under current circumstances. And so, […]

Some people appear to be a bit oversensitive.

I’ve noticed a few folks who appear to be a bit touchy to criticism. or just to simple questions. Here’s a couple of examples: (read more) […]

The honeymoon for Ignatieff with the press, public continues.

I’ve seen a couple of indicators of that today. First the polling numbers for the parties:

The (Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey) poll also suggests Conservatives and Liberals are statistically tied, with 31 per cent and 33 per cent support respectively, well ahead of the NDP at 15 per cent, the Greens at 10 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois at 10 per cent.

Then the leadership numbers:

Ignatieff was the only national leader to score a net positive rating, with 43 per cent of respondents saying they had a favourable impression of him versus 32 per cent who had an unfavourable opinion. Harper was viewed favourably by 43 per cent […]

Nanos holds the Cons. lead at 4.

Well, Nanos keep the Conservative lead at 4, but the regionals still show a lot of interesting things:

– The Liberals have jumped back into a 14 point lead over the Cons. in Atlantic Canada, after a dead head yesterday (Liberals +8, Cons. -6). This has been one of the most volatile regions for party support – at least in the Nanos polls.

– The NDP are now in a MOE tie in Quebec with the Liberals and Cons.

– The Liberals continue to hold a double digit lead in Ontario.

– The Conservatives have reached 50% in “the West”. I presume Albertans must be getting angry the rest of […]

Decima drops the Cons. lead on the Liberals to 4 points today.

The new Harris-Decima poll shows a narrowing gap of 4 between the Cons and the Liberals based on, you guessed it, economic worries:

The latest Canadian Press Harris-Decima poll gave Harper’s Conservatives 31 per cent support across Canada, just four percentage points clear of the resurgent Liberals. The New Democrats had 20 per cent support, with the Greens at 12 and the Bloc Quebecois at eight per cent. Four of every 10 respondents particularly women, city-dwellers and older, affluent voters say the roller-coaster markets are causing them to rethink their vote, largely at the expense of the Tories, said Harris-Decima president Bruce Anderson.

The Liberals remain well clear of the Cons. in Ontario, the Cons remain mired in 3rd place in Quebec, and here might be the most important part of the poll:

Wednesday’s poll also suggested newfound support for Liberal Leader Stphane Dion, who is “marginally more popular” than Harper for the first time in the campaign, Anderson noted. Positive impressions of Dion stood at 41 per cent, with 48 per cent of respondents reporting the opposite. Some 51 per cent of respondents said they had a negative impression of Harper, while 40 per cent were positive.

This poll was taken, I suspect, before the nation got to hear the PM tell everyone that people were panicking and there were great buying opportunities out there in the stock market. I’ll be interested to see how that comment reverberates with the Canadian public over the next day or 2.

UPDATE @ 11:40 am: Haha. Great snark by Kady O’Malley:

…for the first time ever, the Most Leaderiest Prime Minister in the History of Ever is one point below the European-schooled sociologist when it comes to having a favourable impression : 40% – a new low – with Not A Leader at 41%

I know Elizabeth May did well in the debates..

..but did she do as well as the polling firm Ekos has her and the Greens in Ontario?

Liberals 33, Cons. 33, NDP 20, Green 15

I think thats the largest # I’ve seen the Greens have in Ontario from any polling firm. If you’ve been following the Ekos daily poll, they would seem to be pulling it from all parties. So the question would be a) How accurate is Ekos methodology, and b) Is it hard or soft support for the Greens? With regards to the 2nd question, Ekos said they found that 74% of Green Party voters would “not likely” change their vote, while 17% said “likely” and 9% said “somewhat likely”.

The next question asks if they knew the Conservatives would win a majority government, would they change their vote to try and stop it, and 30% of Greens voters said they would (though I question the poll’s wording here, as one can never truly KNOW about voting night). Of course, if the polls stay the same, and it appears there is a minority government of whatever stripe, the likelihood of them changing their vote is even more remote.

Oh, and as with other polls, Ekos also shows a narrowing down to 7% between the Cons and the Liberals, the lowest margin they’ve had since the election writ was dropped. As with Decima and Nanos, they show the Cons dropping into the teens in Quebec.

KLRvu polling methodology update

Well, we’ve had quite a few of blogposts on the KLRvu pollsters and their polling numbers for Guelph throughout the blogosphere (including yours truly), and even one by David Akin looking at them. All this publicity no doubt thrills Allan Bruinooge, the head of the polling company, to no end.

I mentioned on Friday that I’d written the polling firm asking them of the 3396 households they polled in Guelph, how many of those refused to answer, hung up, etc. I received this response in email from Mr Bruinooge, and to be fair to him, I’ll quote his reply in full. He explains that the 3396 figure is the final […]

On push-polling.

Well, I’m presuming a poll claiming to show a majority of Canadians opposed to Dr. Henry Morgentaler receiving the Order of Canada was done by the anti-abortion movement as explained over here at Birth Pangs (I prefer giving them the link traffic) because they were horrified at the fact that 2 legitimate pollsters did polling that showed a solid majority of Canadians (by over 2-1 numbers) approved of Dr. Henry Morgentaler receiving the Order of Canada.

When faced with polling done by those pollsters done with no axe to grind vs one that has been asked by a group with an obvious agenda, you always go with the established pollsters. […]

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