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Posted by Scott Tribe on January 19, 2012, at 6:52 am |
Those are the findings of one specific poll. First the poll #’s and the pollster’s speculation:
Buoyed by high approval ratings for interim leader Bob Rae, support for the federal Liberals is on the rise, according to a new poll. The Forum Research survey found support for Rae’s Liberals at 25 per cent, a four-point increase since the pollster’s last survey in mid-December. Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservatives received 35 per cent, Nycole Turmel’s NDP had 28 per cent, while the Bloc Québécois and Green Party earned 6 per cent and 4 per cent, respectively….Bozinoff suggested the Liberals’ popularity increase may be attributed to Rae — the interim leader’s [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on October 5, 2011, at 7:23 am |
To recap in the last day, Ekos, Nanos and Ipsos all indicate the Liberals are close to or will get a majority (Ipsos even went so far as to say in an interview that it’s over – the Liberals will win), while Abacus is showing a tighter Liberal lead that could go either way, and now Angus Reid has released a poll this AM saying they have a slight PC lead.
I’m not sure if that’s it for polls – Harris Decima is the only major pollster I haven’t seen release anything of late – but it appears it will again come down to who can get their [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on October 3, 2011, at 6:32 am |
Only a few days left until Ontario voters get out to vote for their next provincial government, and the polls that came out on the weekend still had a neck and neck race. Ekos released a new poll this AM which seemed to indicate the Liberals were pulling away just a tad, but it still is close.
It will be interesting from my standpoint to see a) which polls were closest (online, IVR or traditional phone) and also the similarities/differences to the Ontario vote from the federal election in May, and what can be learned from that.
Also, with regards to a rumour of Harper coming to Toronto to [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on September 27, 2011, at 3:05 pm |
We enter the Ontario leaders debate tonight with a new poll from Ekos released today showing the Liberals with a 4 point lead over the PC’s and the NDP in the mid-20′s. According to threehundredeight.com, combined with the findings of another poll release last night by Abacus (with their new polling methodology), that would lead to a bare Liberal majority.
Therefore, I would submit the pressure is on the opposition parties’ leaders to perform well. Hudak needs to do so to salvage what has been a fairly miserable campaign for him (losing a massive lead in less then 3 months to now possibly losing the election outright). Horwath on [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on September 26, 2011, at 8:30 pm |
There was some conventional wisdom out there in pundit land that in the last few days of the May election, the Conservatives and Harper bit of fear-mongering that the NDP might be elected to government caused right-leaning Liberals to turn and vote Conservative in order to stop this, thus causing the vote splits in Toronto and such that ensured a Harper majority.
According to a study by Ekos, however, that was not the case:
In his post-election analysis, which he presented to a polling conference in Ottawa last week, Mr. Graves says that his sample of 1,000 voters in Ontario did not find a respondent who shifted to the [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on September 24, 2011, at 7:31 am |
Very interesting – the Forum Research president apparently paid for this poll out of his own pocket. It’s a massive sample that shows a deadlocked Ontario legislature if it holds to election day:
A Forum Research survey of 40,750 people — one of the largest polling samples in Canadian political history — has the two parties separated by only 107 respondents, each holding 35 per cent. (14,064 said they will vote Liberal, while 13,957 selected the Conservatives.) Meanwhile, the New Democrats were at 23 per cent and the Green Party at 5 per cent.
For those wondering, this was an IVR poll – an interactive voice response one, which [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on September 19, 2011, at 6:43 am |
Lots of stuff to talk about at the beginning of this week:
- The official Fall session for the federal Parliament begins today. The Conservatives and Harper will now begin the process of ending or killing everything they don’t like ideologically – which they now can do with their majority. Most governments try to create a legacy when they’re in government. Harper and his bunch will have a legacy that I predict will end up being remembered for trying to destroy everything that is Liberal or liberal oriented. It will be interesting though to see how effective the Official Opposition New Democrats (without Layton) and the Liberals (without a [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on September 15, 2011, at 7:27 am |
As you might know if you’re a reader of this blog, I occasionally comment on polls. Today is a slightly different setting. A polling company criticizes and takes to task other “new” polling companies. Ipsos-Reid released a highly unusual statement at their site, where they question those other polling companies science and methods, and caution the news media that use them for a quick headline. A little excerpt:
Some marginal pollsters count on your ignorance and hunger to make the news to peddle an inferior product. Others are using your coverage to “prove” that their untried methodology is the way forward for market research in Canada…Journalists are no mere [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on September 14, 2011, at 7:03 am |
Another credible pollster – Forum Research – decided to take a poll specifically in Toronto, where conservative mayor Rob Ford and federal Conservatives had major breakthroughs of seats for varying reasons. The result isn’t the same at the moment for the provincial PC’s:
The party has slipped to third place in the city, dropping 10 percentage points since June 1 to 24 per cent support. The Liberals, who hold 19 of 23 seats in Toronto, is at 39 per cent, up from 34 per cent three months ago. The NDP, which has four seats here, has leapfrogged the Tories and is at 30 per cent up from 26 per [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on September 8, 2011, at 6:29 pm |
Wow:
A newly released Harris-Decima poll shows Dalton McGuinty’s Ontario Liberals have an 11 point lead over Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives – the first time the governing party has bested it’s main rival in many months.The Ontario poll has the Liberals in the lead at 43 per cent, the PC’s with 31 per cent, the NDP at 21 and the Green Party trailing with five per cent. The 43 per cent support for the Liberals, if accurate, puts the party in majority government territory.
Even though I thought Tim Hudak’s abortion stuff would not go over well in mainstream Ontario, and the Liberals have fought back against the immigrant [...]
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