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Liberals have the progressive base on their side – can they keep it?

Liberals are often accused of running (a campaign) on the left and governing right(wing). but recent polling shows that so far, the voters on the progressive left have been rather happy with the Justin Trudeau Government.

This article here by Eric Grenier highlights an Innovative Research Poll that shows the core groups that are considered left wing voters (“core left,” “left liberals” and the “populist left.” is how Innovative has classified them) abandoned the NDP in droves for the Liberals in October’s election, and that support has deepened. There is also this mention of an Abacus Poll showing a similar trend:

A recent poll by Abacus Data also hints at […]

Election 42 kicks off. Nanos poll, Trudeau start bolsters LPC. Danielle Takacs shows why I support her.

The 42nd General Election writ was dropped yesterday, causing the 11 week campaign to officially begin.

It was interesting watching Harper try to pull off an Orwellian type response to why such a long campaign, claiming that it would somehow save money for the taxpayers – while it’s generally known that this extra long campaign will cost taxpayers an extra $125 million dollars. Also, ISIS, ISIS and more ISIS. We’re apparently supposed to be scared into voting for the CPC again. Also, the economy isn’t doing that great, we’re still going to run a deficit this year, according to the Parliamentary Budget Office, and we’re in a technical recession, but […]

Angus Reid: Strong Support For Bill C51/Strong Support for Oversight. (Liberal position vindicated in this poll)

Given the furore over the past couple of months on social media – most of it NDP activist driven – you’d think that the entire country hated Bill C51, the new security and anti-terrorism bill – and entire sections of disaffected Liberal Party activists and voters were deserting the LPC and flocking to the NDP. A new poll by Angus-Reid released yesterday, however, would tend to show that narrative is false. There is still strong public support for Bill C51, but also strong support for adding oversight to make sure police and other agencies don’t overdo it:

Nationally, nearly three-in-four (72%) Canadians polled in a new public opinion survey by […]

Pundits selectively cherry-picking polls to dump on Federal Liberals.

Last week, not too long after the budget release, an Abacus poll was released showing the Conservatives jumping to an 8 point lead over the Liberals. The immediate analysis of that pollster of their results, and from pundits and partisans (even some from our own side) on social media immediately declared – on the basis of this one poll – that the Liberals were in a bit of trouble. Fortunately though, they still had a few months to do something.

Curiously, an Ekos poll was released a couple of days later that, while the Liberals were still down to the Conservatives (a 3 pt deficit), that had stayed more or […]

Contradictory polls

So we have a couple of polls out today: Ekos (who is behind a paywall) has the CPC suddenly leading by 3% 35-32 over the LPC due to a sudden “surge” in support for them in Quebec – 26% or so. Meanwhile, Leger (who is not behind a paywall) has the exact opposite result; the LPC up by 3 nationally, and the Conservatives down in the traditional teens where they’ve been for awhile (excepting Forum and Ekos.. and I’m a tad sceptical – particularly of Forum). We’ve had other polls come out the past week from Abacus and Nanos (released by mistake) that show neck and neck or slight leads […]

Wynne & OLP have (polling) momentum going into debate

… or so it would appear from the latest polling. Ekos had a 5 pt OLP lead yesterday, while Abacus had a 2 or 7 pt OLP lead (depending on their likely voter or all voter screen), and today Nanos finally enters the polling arena. The Nanos polling company has been promoting their Power Index stuff for awhile, so it takes some time to scroll down and find the actual poll results. but the OLP leads by 6.5% (and at 37.7%) when you do eventually find it.

What does that mean for tonight’s debate? It’s the last chance for the NDP’s Andrea Horwath to make an impression on voters – […]

Forum Polling Updated (in 2 ridings) for the byelections on Monday

Consider this a continuation of last blogpost, where I said I’d update the post if Forum came out with 1 last quickie update. I figured it just was better to post the new numbers here:

In brief: Toronto-Centre and Brandon were re-polled today. Bourassa and Provencher were not – their #’s from the prior blog remain the last polling #’s Forum has on those two ridings.

Toronto-Centre’s new polling #’s are: LPC 47, NDP 39, CPC 11, GP 3% (MOE: +/- 4%) Brandon-Souris’s new polling #’s are: LPC 59%, CPC 30%, NDP 6%, GP 5% (MOE: +/- 5%)

TC’s #’s indicate finally the evidence that it was tightening, as NDP’ers […]

Another Test For Forum Research & Its Polling Methods (in byelections anyhow)

For a minute, let’s forget what partisan side of the fence we’re all on, and turn into poll analysts. Forum Research is the only pollster doing any poll tracking of the four byelections, which are to commence tomorrow. Forum’s probably last poll of the cycle before Monday lists the following findings:

Bourassa: Liberals 43, NDP 31, BQ 15 (Margin of Error for poll: +/- 6%) Toronto-Centre: Liberals 48, NDP 35, CPC 13 (MOE: +/- 4%) Brandon-Souris: Liberal 50%, CPC 36%, NDP 8% (MOE: +/- 5%) Provencher: CPC 48%, LPC 37%, Green 8%, NDP 6% (MOE: +/- 7%)

Forum has oft been criticized for recent polls in other byelections/elections where their […]

Senate reform still desired over Senate abolition or status quo

Despite the Senate scandal deepening, it appears that for now, Canadians still prefer reforming the Senate over abolishing it, as indicated by this Ipsos-Reid poll from a couple of days ago. 49% of respondents indicated reform (and the Ipsos question on reform is worded as “..reformed to make it for example an elected body“) while 43% preferred abolishing it. Only 8% preferred the status quo – leaving it as is.

All discussions on what should be done with the Senate are on hold until the Supreme Court of Canada rules on the government’s referral on what can and can’t be done with the Senate, and what amount of consent is […]

More encouraging polls for the Liberals

Two polls come to us today – from two separate pollsters. The first I highlight comes from Forum Research, where voter preference and voter switching is looked at, and Justin Trudeau’s Liberals lead in the net-gain of votes:

The poll, conducted by Forum Research, says that one third of people who voted NDP in the past federal election would vote Liberal if an election were held today. In fact, 45 per cent of NDP voters in total would switch their votes to another party. Twenty-five per cent of Conservative voters would switch their vote – 17 per cent of them would change it to Liberal. “These results will propel the […]

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