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2 sides of the polling analysis coin

Latest Nanos Poll numbers for the federal parties: LPC 36, CPC 30, NDP 25.

Nik Nanos commentary on this 2 pt gain for the Liberals over the CPC was that it was to do with the Senate scandal, not Justin’s admission he smoke marijuana:

Trudeau hasn’t seen a rise in popularity after focusing on marijuana, Nanos added. The Liberal leader was in the news recently for admitting he smoked marijuana a few years ago, after he was elected as an MP. The Liberal party is pushing for the legalization of marijuana. Trudeau’s pot admission and policy is “statistical puffery” because it drives interest but not votes, Nanos said.

An observation […]

This poll and that poll – more summer bad news for the Conservatives

More polls to talk about today. First, two-thirds of Canadians who were polled disapprove of Prime Minister proroguing Parliament in Sept and waiting until late October to reconvene Parliament.

As I said in my blogpost just the other day, this is probably the most “conventional” use of proroguing Parliament (or intending to prorogue, as he hasnt formally asked for it yet) that Harper has done while in government, and it’s ironic that on the more conventional type of prorogue, Harper’s getting massive disapproval of his intent to use it again.. but I guess that’s what you get when you abuse it a couple of other times.

The other poll […]

Byelection Day in Ontario – grading the pollsters polls

Interested political observers and partisans will be looking at today’s by-elections here in Ontario to see what message the voters will be sending the Ontario Liberal government of Kathleen Wynne.

I’ll be interested in the results for more then one reason. We have had 2 polling companies – Forum, and Campaign Research – doing polling in some or all of the ridings, and I will be curious to see which of these 2 were closer to the mark (or if both are). Both of these pollsters used IVR (Interactive Voice Response) technology to get their polling results, so it will be a test of how their demographics and random […]

On Senate Reform

Your latest poll from Forum Research on what should be done with the Senate:

“More than one third want to abolish the Senate. An additional 37% called for the Senate to become an elected body. Less than 10% felt it best to leave the Senate as is. The latest results are consistent with an earlier Forum poll on the Senate, which was conducted before the scandal gained traction. Those February results also show the majority split between abolition and reform.”

I’m in the electoral reform camp, as you may know from reading here. Consequently, I disagree with Justin Trudeau that the only thing needed to improve the Senate is to […]

An early Trudeau effect in polling?

Nanos is out with a new poll today. It shows the Liberals have made some large gains:

A Nanos Research survey reveals the Liberals have picked up almost six points over the Opposition New Democrats in the past month, and are edging the NDP for overall support for the first time since April 2012. The new poll shows support for the Conservatives remains steady at 33.3 per cent, with the Liberals at 30.1 per cent, the NDP at 27.9 per cent, the Bloc Québécois at 4.7 per cent, and the Green Party at 2.9 per cent.

Mr Nanos indicates that may be to do with the Liberal leadership race:

“Many […]

Polls on Liberal (would-be) contenders and NDP leads.

You might have seen a poll out in the past couple of days from Forum Research stating that if Justin Trudeau became Liberal Party leader, he’d receive 39% of the vote, Stephen Harper’s CPC getting 32% and the NDP reverting back to their long held 3rd party status with 20%. You might have also seen an Environics poll out as well that showed the NDP in the national lead with 35%, CPC at 31%, and the Liberals with the 20% that they’ve held basically since Election Day in 2011.

In both instances, they are interesting snapshots of the Canadian public, but in both cases, we’re a little under 3 years […]

Brief thoughts on Bob Rae running or not running

There was a bit of a dustup online (amongst Liberals anyhow) over this story CBC broke yesterday:

Interim Liberal Leader Bob Rae will be permitted to run in his party’s leadership race and he is expected to enter the race, CBC News has learned…Party President Mike Crawley said a motion will be presented next Wednesday “to clarify how Rae could put himself forward as a candidate.”

The main debate raging seems to be over Bob breaking his word last year he would not put himself forward as a candidate for the permanent leader position (and you can find that quote of his very easily – at Macleans for one from […]

Shifting left?

As they always say, the only poll that counts is election day, but polls are a useful barometer of how the public is feeling in a snapshot in time, and this one definitely is favoring Mulcair and the NDP:

The nationwide poll suggests the New Democratic Party would form a minority federal government if this were election day and a strong majority of Canadians believe the country suffers from an income gap, where the rich are getting too rich and the poor are getting too poor. The NDP would capture 138 seats in the 308-seat parliament, up from the 103 they currently hold. The Conservatives, who won a majority government […]

Friday flipping

-Young Liberal Zach Paiken asserts that Canada is becoming more conservative – therefore, Liberals must follow that trend to get re-elected one day. I don’t see any polls or statistics in that story backing that claim up. Zach, if you’re not aware, has a bit of a reputation amongst some of us Liberals of being on the conservative side of the Liberal Party, so I’m not particularly surprised he’d try to claim Liberals need to move to the right, or be more “conservative”. He needs more then his assertions though to prove those claims. As an aside, our last 2 leaders in the LPC represented both wings of the LPC, […]

Harper and Cons reputation taking a bit of a beating – a year too late.

Two new polls out today – one from Forum Research in the Star shows the NDP ahead of the CPC by 3%.. the other by Nanos at the Globe shows the CPC ahead, but in an MOE dead heat.

Pollster are going to get looked at skeptically for a bit after the Alberta election results, but it’s not a shock to see the CPC drop after the Robo-Con vot suppression issue (still ongoing), the F35 scandal, and other various CPC misdeeds. My two thoughts are: it’s too bad the public didn’t realize this a year ago before voting for a majority government, but then again, perhaps it needed to be […]

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