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Forum Polling Updated (in 2 ridings) for the byelections on Monday

Consider this a continuation of last blogpost, where I said I’d update the post if Forum came out with 1 last quickie update. I figured it just was better to post the new numbers here:

In brief: Toronto-Centre and Brandon were re-polled today. Bourassa and Provencher were not – their #’s from the prior blog remain the last polling #’s Forum has on those two ridings.

Toronto-Centre’s new polling #’s are: LPC 47, NDP 39, CPC 11, GP 3% (MOE: +/- 4%) Brandon-Souris’s new polling #’s are: LPC 59%, CPC 30%, NDP 6%, GP 5% (MOE: +/- 5%)

TC’s #’s indicate finally the evidence that it was tightening, as NDP’ers […]

Another Test For Forum Research & Its Polling Methods (in byelections anyhow)

For a minute, let’s forget what partisan side of the fence we’re all on, and turn into poll analysts. Forum Research is the only pollster doing any poll tracking of the four byelections, which are to commence tomorrow. Forum’s probably last poll of the cycle before Monday lists the following findings:

Bourassa: Liberals 43, NDP 31, BQ 15 (Margin of Error for poll: +/- 6%) Toronto-Centre: Liberals 48, NDP 35, CPC 13 (MOE: +/- 4%) Brandon-Souris: Liberal 50%, CPC 36%, NDP 8% (MOE: +/- 5%) Provencher: CPC 48%, LPC 37%, Green 8%, NDP 6% (MOE: +/- 7%)

Forum has oft been criticized for recent polls in other byelections/elections where their […]

Byelection observations: Keep an eye on Brandon later today.

I say that because PM Harper is in Winnipeg this (last) evening at the Jets game. It will be extremely interesting to see whether he pops in to Brandon-Souris tomorrow to personally campaign or not for the local Conservative candidate. The fact a personalized brochure was mailed out from the CPC to the riding voters shows they are rather concerned with the outcome of this vote.

If he shows up there, it might solidify notions the Conservatives are in trouble here; sitting PM’s rarely heavily campaign in by-elections, if at all. On the other hand, they may not bring him in if they feel it’s a lost cause; no […]

Some NDP hypocrisy on oil pipelines

I want to remark on an online/social media phenomenon I’ve seen, (mostly on Twitter) the past couple of days, where NDP activists, particularly ones who are active in the Toronto Centre by-election, are going after Justin Trudeau on his spoken support at a US conference (attended by ex-Australian PM Julia Gillard and former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, among others) for Keystone XL and the proposed oil pipeline running south (yet to be approved by the US). This is not a new position he’s taken, though its being played up by some as that (and to be fair, a lot of the US activists he was talking to at the […]

Competition to replace Bob Rae in Toronto-Centre is officially on

The NDP and Liberal candidates for Toronto-Centre were voted on last evening. Chrystia Freeland and Linda Mcquaig were elected by their memberships to run for their political parties. Mcquaig’s win was on the first ballot, which surprised me a bit, as my original perception from reading up on this race was that Jennifer Hollett had good establishment NDP backing, though a source in the Hollett camp who I trust said that it was Linda Mcquaig that had the establishment politicians backing. I’ve commented on Jennifer Hollett before on here, and I’ll say again, she’s a hard person not to like, even if you’re not an NDP supporter, so I hope […]

A Battle Royale in Toronto-Centre

This certainly livens things up in the NDP nomination battle for Toronto-Centre:

Linda McQuaig, well-known author and Star columnist, is announcing on Tuesday that she is vying to be the New Democratic Party candidate in the Toronto Centre byelection….She is running for the NDP nomination against Jennifer Hollett, who worked for Much Music, CBC and CTV.

Ms. Hollett, of course, is who I did a feature blogpost on not too long ago. This should be quite the battle to watch; I respect both Hollett and Mcquaig for their talents, and either one would be a high-quality candidate for the NDP.

On a related note, there are now 3 LPC candidates […]

Don’t underestimate Jennifer Hollett in Toronto-Center

You may recognize/remember Jennifer Hollett from her MuchMusic VJ days. She has done more then that since then, including a stint as a contributor at CBC Newsworld (Connect with Mark Kelley), did some reporting with CBC Radio, and a ton of other stuff. She’s also a social media guru/geek (and I mean that in a good way). I’ve followed her on her Twitter account for awhile now.

Recently (well, recently to me; I remember I asked her on Twitter about it), she declared herself an NDP supporter; she was doing some social media stuff for their party not too long ago (and you’ll forgive me for not remembering what the […]

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