voter intentions « Scott's DiaTribes

Anyone pick #12 Cornell to get to the Sweet 16, and blowing out #4 Winsocnsin en route? yikes 8 mins ago
@RosieBarton Vote isnt till approx. 9 pm tonight anyhow. 2 hours ago
http://is.gd/aRRI3 - "Assuming House passes the bill today, the biggest losers are going to be the Dems who vote against it and lose anyway" 2 hours ago
US HCR bill? It's weak tea for me, but its better then what they have now. If I'm a Democrat, I'd be passing it. Improve it down the road. 2 hours ago
#cdnleft Well done, CRUSH: CRUSH ran this ad in the Saturday March 20 edition of the Toronto Star: ... http://trim.li/nk/1wNH #cdnpoli #lpc 7 hours ago

The tale of polls

Posted by Scott Tribe on March 2, 2010, at 12:40 pm |

One pollster comes out declaring Harper has an Olympic-sized bounce; another comes out with a poll today that says it’s a national dead-heat (with the Olympics apparently having no effect), and a 3rd one just released says its numbers show stability from the last poll it did a week ago.

More polling to come I suspect, [...]

If you dont believe CAPP is a reflection of public anger at prorogation...

Posted by Scott Tribe on January 24, 2010, at 7:03 pm |

..such as CFRB 1010’s John Moore who has liked to team up with Globe blogger Dan Cook in scoffing at the CAPP Facebook group, perhaps you and they will believe the polls show that anger – and yet another one released this evening confirms a drop for the Conservatives and a jump for the Liberals [...]

Cons 31, Libs 30. New SC poll. Prorogation hurting Cons: pollster

Posted by Scott Tribe on January 13, 2010, at 2:39 pm |

There are a lot more “elitists” out there that care about their Parliament getting unnecessarily prorogued then cabinet minister Tony Clement thinks apparently, if this new SC poll is any indication:

Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s government has paid a large price in popularity for shutting down Parliament, with his Conservatives effectively tied with Liberals in a [...]

EKOS poll: The first hints of discontent with Harper's prorogue?

Posted by Scott Tribe on January 7, 2010, at 8:36 am |

Kady O’Malley of CBC details the EKOS poll that has just come out this AM, which shows a Conservative drop and the Liberals now only trailing the Conseratives by 5 percentage points:

Conservatives: 33.1 (-2.8)
Liberals: 27.8 (+1.1)
NDP: 16.0 (-1.0)
Green: 13.4 (+2.2)
Bloc Quebecois: 9.8 (+0.6)
Undecided: 14.7

Regionally, the Liberals have managed to take back the lead in Ontario [...]

Barking up the wrong tree and accidentally deliberating prematurely.

Posted by Scott Tribe on August 24, 2009, at 3:31 pm |

I see some of my NDP blogging colleagues are trying to act like the Blogging Tories normally do, and trying to cherry pick a single poll from a pollster that has been perceived as being on the high end of Conservative support when it tracks those polling numbers. They use this poll to declare the [...]

Status quo in new Ekos poll.

Posted by Scott Tribe on July 9, 2009, at 11:23 am |

So here’s your new weekly poll from Ekos:

National federal vote intention:
¤ 32.2% LPC
¤ 31.8% CPC
¤ 16.0% NDP
¤ 10.7% Green
¤ 9.3% BQ

A full provincial breakdown is at the Ekos link. Basically, the Liberals have a lead based on their improved stance in Ontario, and it’s your basic stalemate for the summer poll. basically. I will however [...]

Latest Ekos poll shows…?

Posted by Scott Tribe on July 2, 2009, at 11:36 am |

An apparent national stalemate between the 2 largest parties, with the smaller parties gaining some ground:

LPC 32.2% (32.6% last week), CPC 31% (34.8%), NDP 16.2% (14.3), GPC 11.5% (9.3%), BQ 9% (9%)

There have been some shifts here and there in regional areas (The Conservatives seem to have slumped back in Ontario and Quebec), but as [...]

So far, not a lot of bang for the millions of bucks spent on attack ads.

Posted by Scott Tribe on June 6, 2009, at 10:48 am |

In line with other polls released the past week, Nanos Research’s new poll shows no sign that the attack ads released by the Conservatives have worked to halt Liberal momentum; In fact, the Nanos poll shows an increase in the gap between those who pick the Conservatives and Liberals:

Two things I’ll add: Some folks [...]

The honeymoon for Ignatieff with the press, public continues.

Posted by Scott Tribe on February 10, 2009, at 2:30 pm |

I’ve seen a couple of indicators of that today. First the polling numbers for the parties:

The (Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey) poll also suggests Conservatives and Liberals are statistically tied, with 31 per cent and 33 per cent support respectively, well ahead of the NDP at 15 per cent, the Greens at 10 per cent [...]

Nanos and Ipsos closes the Conservative-Liberal gap; Decima widens it.

Posted by Scott Tribe on October 11, 2008, at 2:20 pm |

Conclusion? It’s extremely volatile and fluid out there as to who is going to vote for who (with the exception of Quebec, where it seems voters are convinced they aren’t going to vote en masse for Harper.

Decima has the Cons. extending their lead to 10 here. Nanos has the gap narrowing to 4 here. Ipsos-Reid [...]

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The tale of polls

If you dont believe CAPP is a reflection of public anger at prorogation...

Cons 31, Libs 30. New SC poll. Prorogation hurting Cons: pollster

EKOS poll: The first hints of discontent with Harper's prorogue?

Barking up the wrong tree and accidentally deliberating prematurely.

Status quo in new Ekos poll.

Latest Ekos poll shows…?

So far, not a lot of bang for the millions of bucks spent on attack ads.

The honeymoon for Ignatieff with the press, public continues.

Nanos and Ipsos closes the Conservative-Liberal gap; Decima widens it.

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