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The tale of polls

One pollster comes out declaring Harper has an Olympic-sized bounce; another comes out with a poll today that says it’s a national dead-heat (with the Olympics apparently having no effect), and a 3rd one just released says its numbers show stability from the last poll it did a week ago.

More polling to come I suspect, but as far as I’m concerned, we’re back to square one with voter intentions and preferences now that Parliament is about to be “un-prorogued” (my new word invention).

If you dont believe CAPP is a reflection of public anger at prorogation...

..such as CFRB 1010’s John Moore who has liked to team up with Globe blogger Dan Cook in scoffing at the CAPP Facebook group, perhaps you and they will believe the polls show that anger – and yet another one released this evening confirms a drop for the Conservatives and a jump for the Liberals caused by – you’d never guess – public anger at prorogation:

The Conservative Party is holding a small lead over the Liberals in the latest survey from Ipsos Ried. In a telephone poll of 1,000 adult Canadians was carried out between January 19th to 21st, 34% said they would vote for the Conservatives if an […]

Cons 31, Libs 30. New SC poll. Prorogation hurting Cons: pollster

There are a lot more “elitists” out there that care about their Parliament getting unnecessarily prorogued then cabinet minister Tony Clement thinks apparently, if this new SC poll is any indication:

Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s government has paid a large price in popularity for shutting down Parliament, with his Conservatives effectively tied with Liberals in a new poll by The Strategic Counsel. Conservatives are at 31 per cent, compared to 30 per cent for Liberals, in the poll conducted by Strategic Counsel late last week, as controversy was starting to build over Harper’s prorogation of Parliament until March 3.

“Proroguing of Parliament has hurt the Tory brand,” said Tim Woolstencroft, […]

EKOS poll: The first hints of discontent with Harper's prorogue?

Kady O’Malley of CBC details the EKOS poll that has just come out this AM, which shows a Conservative drop and the Liberals now only trailing the Conseratives by 5 percentage points:

Conservatives: 33.1 (-2.8) Liberals: 27.8 (+1.1) NDP: 16.0 (-1.0) Green: 13.4 (+2.2) Bloc Quebecois: 9.8 (+0.6) Undecided: 14.7

Regionally, the Liberals have managed to take back the lead in Ontario – the first time in a long time in an Ekos poll – and the Cons have really slipped back in Quebec (specific numbers available at the aforementioned and linked to Kady article).

Speaking of Kady, her analysis of the poll:

…let’s take a moment to ponder the […]

Barking up the wrong tree and accidentally deliberating prematurely.

I see some of my NDP blogging colleagues are trying to act like the Blogging Tories normally do, and trying to cherry pick a single poll from a pollster that has been perceived as being on the high end of Conservative support when it tracks those polling numbers. They use this poll to declare the end of Michael Ignatieff/The Liberals etc. etc. etc.

Well now, as CalgaryGrit just said, Michael’s obviously had a good 20 hours, since he’s managed to turn an 11 point deficit into a 1 point lead:

A new poll suggests the Conservatives and Liberals remain locked in a dead heat amid rumblings of a possible fall […]

Status quo in new Ekos poll.

So here’s your new weekly poll from Ekos:

National federal vote intention: ¤ 32.2% LPC ¤ 31.8% CPC ¤ 16.0% NDP ¤ 10.7% Green ¤ 9.3% BQ

A full provincial breakdown is at the Ekos link. Basically, the Liberals have a lead based on their improved stance in Ontario, and it’s your basic stalemate for the summer poll. basically. I will however note the last day of their tracking poll shows a spike for the Liberals; did Wafer-Gate affect that? 😉 Probably not, but it’s such a blase poll result, there’s not much else to talk about. Heck, even Ekos is forced to say that Ignatieff wooing Albertans isn’t working […]

Latest Ekos poll shows…?

An apparent national stalemate between the 2 largest parties, with the smaller parties gaining some ground:

LPC 32.2% (32.6% last week), CPC 31% (34.8%), NDP 16.2% (14.3), GPC 11.5% (9.3%), BQ 9% (9%)

There have been some shifts here and there in regional areas (The Conservatives seem to have slumped back in Ontario and Quebec), but as the pollster says, nothing much is happening for any party:

Overall, however, the most striking pattern may be one of gridlock, in which neither major party can break through to become an obvious election favourite, much less a contender for a majority government. “One peculiar feature of the gridlock is that the Liberals […]

So far, not a lot of bang for the millions of bucks spent on attack ads.

In line with other polls released the past week, Nanos Research’s new poll shows no sign that the attack ads released by the Conservatives have worked to halt Liberal momentum; In fact, the Nanos poll shows an increase in the gap between those who pick the Conservatives and Liberals:

Two things I’ll add: Some folks will jump on the part of the survey where it says 60% of Canadians don’t want an election over the dispute that the Conservative government and the opposition parties are having over EI, but I think that’s a bit of a misnomer. Canadians NEVER like having an election (more were opposed the last […]

The honeymoon for Ignatieff with the press, public continues.

I’ve seen a couple of indicators of that today. First the polling numbers for the parties:

The (Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey) poll also suggests Conservatives and Liberals are statistically tied, with 31 per cent and 33 per cent support respectively, well ahead of the NDP at 15 per cent, the Greens at 10 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois at 10 per cent.

Then the leadership numbers:

Ignatieff was the only national leader to score a net positive rating, with 43 per cent of respondents saying they had a favourable impression of him versus 32 per cent who had an unfavourable opinion. Harper was viewed favourably by 43 per cent […]

Nanos and Ipsos closes the Conservative-Liberal gap; Decima widens it.

Conclusion? It’s extremely volatile and fluid out there as to who is going to vote for who (with the exception of Quebec, where it seems voters are convinced they aren’t going to vote en masse for Harper.

Decima has the Cons. extending their lead to 10 here. Nanos has the gap narrowing to 4 here. Ipsos-Reid has the gap drastically narrowing to 5 from a 14 point Conservative lead taken in their poll last week here. Note the different margins in the Maritimes and Ontario for all the 3 polls, and you’ll see why it’s very fluid.

I hate to use cliches, but the winner of the election, and by […]

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