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Interesting last Ekos poll and commentary before Parliament’s summer break

This poll is a day old in its release, but I found it noteworthy for a couple of reasons:

One reason is this:

(This) EKOS poll gives the Conservatives 30.5 per cent support from Canadians, compared to 26.3 per cent for the Liberals. The Tories have been sliding over the past few weeks, losing the 10-point lead they enjoyed over the Liberals not so long ago. The NDP, meanwhile, are at 17.4 per cent, compared to the Green Party at 12.3 per cent; the Bloc is at 10.5 per cent.

“Their (the Harper Conservatives) current vote intention is the lowest since they took office and the leading direction of federal-government […]

Environics Poll shows Liberals in national lead.

I saw the folks over at CAITI Online post about an Environics poll:

Our Environics poll taken Feb 4 – 9 that was based on 1,000 random telephone calls indicates .. Canadians .. if an election were held today would vote:

Libs 28% Cons 25% NDP 10% Green 7% BQ 6% Abstain 5% Don’t know 17%

Accurate to within +/- 3.1%, 19 out of 20 times

I contacted the folks over at CAITI Online asking for a link to this poll’s raw data, since I didn’t see it at the Environics website. The CAITI folks have been kind enough to send me a table and more information on this poll, […]

Best description ever of Harper's prorogation mistake.

Realizing that prorogation was the worst political mistake since Pierre Trudeau handed John Turner a list of his friends to find jobs for, the PMO is starting to throw furniture out the windows, in a vain attempt to get the Langevin Block to levitate.

Courtesy of Greg over at Mr Sinister, who has a bit more following that great description on the PMO hoping cancelling all upcoming holiday breaks will get Canadians to forgive and forget their blunder. At the moment though, more new polling from Ekos today shows they aren’t in such a hurry to do so. Liberals have marginally increased their lead nationally, and lead in several key […]

Ekos poll: Liberals take the lead (half point); detects 'significant shift'

This Ekos poll was released tonight, and you’ll be seeing plenty of it on CBC later today, since it was done for them. The Liberals have crept into a “statistically insignificant lead”, but a lead nonetheless – the first since August 2009. The numbers are:

31.6% LPC 31.1% CPC 14.6% NDP 11.0% Green 9.1% BQ (37% in Quebec) 2.6% Other

Some of the key analysis from Frank Graves that I find rather striking:

“At this stage it is probably safe to say that despite considerable initial confusion over whether the government’s problems were ephemeral or structural the evidence is that there has been a significant shift..the fact that prorogation backfired […]

And here's a possible indication why the Conservatives want the detainee story to go away...

..and why I mentioned in the prior blogpost of mine that the pressure needs to be kept on them on the Afghan detainees story. The first poll taken after the Afghan detainee flap and the revelations by Colvin and then the sudden reversal by General Natynczyk that yes, there was evidence that Afghan detainees had been tortured shows public opinion starting to turn against the Cons:

Conservative Lead Narrows as Liberals Bounce Back

The governing Conservative Party is still leading in Canada, but the Liberal Party has gained support, according to the Canadian Political Pulse, conducted by Angus Reid Public Opinion in partnership with the Toronto Star…Across the country, 36 […]

Nanos Poll: reaction

My short reaction to the Nanos poll that came out with regional specifics today is as follows:

– While we dropped a bit in Quebec, we don’t see BQ #’s anywhere close to what that Strategic Council Poll had, and the Liberals are still in that 32-33% range. I actually don’t mind those poll numbers; because Liberal support in Quebec is still highly concentrated in the Montreal area, the Liberals would probably have a net pickup of 5-10 seats in and around that area. The NDP has also surprisingly slumped into single digits in the Nanos poll. If that is true, and it confirms that part of the Quebec SC […]

A Saturday Nanos poll.

Here’s a new poll released by Nanos Research for folks to pore over today.

The gist of it is that in comparing this poll to the Nanos one taken in May, the Liberals dropped slightly and the Conservatives gained marginally, but the Liberals still lead nationally (Liberal 36.3%, Conservative 32.2%). Check out the regional breakdowns though; some very interesting shifts from region to region for all the parties.

Also, despite the attack ads launched by the Conservatives, Canadians still have a more positive view of Michael Ignatieff then negative. Not so for Harper; those Canadians with a negative view of him far outdistances those who view him positively.

Ekos poll: Liberals open up margin on Conservatives

Well now, this is the first poll I’ve seen since Ignatieff became leader that shows the Liberals have opened up a lead on the governing Conservatives outside of a poll’s margin of error:

Asked which party they would support if an election were held tomorrow, 36.7 opted for the Liberals while 30.2 per cent chose the Conservatives. About 15.5 per cent supported the NDP, while the Green party was the choice of 8.1 per cent and the Bloc Québécois was backed by 9.4 per cent. A similar poll question was asked just after the December prorogation crisis, when the minority Conservative government almost fell in the face of a challenge […]

Nanos poll puts Liberals in statistical lead.

Courtesy of Warren:

The Nanos Research survey, provided exclusively to The Canadian Press, suggests the Liberals have moved into a virtual tie with the governing Tories. Liberal support stood at 34 per cent, one point ahead of the Conservatives and up eight points from the Liberals’ dismal showing in the Oct. 14 election under the leadership of Stephane Dion. The poll suggests the Liberal resurgence was particularly pronounced in Quebec, where the party vaulted into the lead with 39 per cent support to 29 per cent for the Bloc Quebecois, 17 per cent for the Tories and 14 per cent for the NDP. The telephone poll of 1,003 Canadians was […]

Polls tighten further: Cons lead in Nanos down to 3!

Dare I say it, the Conservatives are in real danger now; forget their hopes for a majority, they are in peril of losing the government altogether, IF the trends hold that Nanos is showing today:

CP 34%, Lib 31%, NDP 18%, BQ 11%, GP 6%

Pollster Nik Nanos comments on the new numbers:

The trend lines say it all. We now have a tight race between the Conservatives and the Liberals. Phase one of the narrowing of the gap featured a drop in Tory support in Quebec. The last three days now see a softening of Conservative support in Ontario – potentially an echo effect from Quebec. Even if Ontarians are not as motivated on culture as Quebecers, the media coverage out of Quebec likely has an impact. Sunday nights English coverage of the demonstration of artists in Montreal broadcast across the country was quite something.

Looking at the regionals, and to show what Nik is talking about, the Liberals have now taken a 9 point lead in Ontario and have reached the 40% mark for the first time in quite awhile. While the Cons have recovered a bit in Quebec, the BQ has amazingly shot up to 46%. There even appears to be mdoest recovery out West for the Liberals.. though where is hard to determine in a regional poll.

By the way, Decima is also showing the race to be closing – they have the Con lead on the Liberals down to 5 points., and they mirror the Liberal resurgence and the Con. drop in Ontario and to a lesser extent in Quebec. The difference with their poll seems to be that they have the Cons in a 1 point MOE (Margin of Error) lead in the Maritimes, while Nanos has the Liberals leading by 6 there.

This is officially a horse race, folks, which as I said at the start shows the Harper government in real danger of losing their governing status – and that’s probably why Harper seemed (to me anyway) so angry and even desperate today at his platform press conference (flip-flopping on the film tax credits for example and now saying he’d cancel that, and threatening in effect to re-open the Constitution and abolish the Senate if he and his party doesn’t get his way on Senate “reform”.

More on the Harper “platform” (if it can be called that) later.

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