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I know Elizabeth May did well in the debates..

..but did she do as well as the polling firm Ekos has her and the Greens in Ontario?

Liberals 33, Cons. 33, NDP 20,  Green 15

I think thats the largest # I’ve seen the Greens have in Ontario from any polling firm. If you’ve been following the Ekos daily poll, they would seem to be pulling it from all parties.  So the question would be a) How accurate is Ekos methodology, and b) Is it hard or soft support for the Greens? With regards to the 2nd question, Ekos said they found that 74% of Green Party voters would “not likely” change their vote, while 17% said “likely” and 9% said “somewhat likely”.

The next question asks if they knew the Conservatives would win a majority government, would they change their vote to try and stop it, and 30% of Greens voters said they would (though I question the poll’s wording here, as one can never truly KNOW about voting night). Of course, if the polls stay the same, and it appears there is a minority government of whatever stripe,  the likelihood of them changing their vote is even more remote.

Oh, and as with other polls, Ekos also shows a narrowing down to 7% between the Cons and the Liberals, the lowest margin they’ve had since the election writ was dropped. As with Decima and Nanos, they show the Cons dropping into the teens in Quebec.

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Nanos narrows to 4 points. Someone tell the media there’s a race!

Do you like Nanos? I like Nanos:

CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 34, LP 30, NDP 19, BQ 10, GP 7 (ending October 4)

If one looks at the regional polls today, we see that the Liberals have taken a decisive lead in Atlantic Canada (not a particular surprise), but the Liberals have now risen to 28% in Quebec, still behind the BQ by a good margin, but well in front of the Conservatives, who continue their nosedive with a 16% showing today. As for Ontario, the Liberals have narrowly edged ahead here within the MOE, and they’re going to need to extend that gap to have any hope of […]

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Followup: NDP hypothetical official opposition status currently not happening according to Decima or Nanos.

If the latest 2 polls released today from Decima and Nanos are an accurate indicator of a Liberal turnaround in the polls and not just statistical noise, then all we engaged in the last blogpost of mine was some fun hypothetical situations.

Harper showed his “not likable streak” last week that he’s more or less masked this election, and that may have helped to trim the poll gap, as progressive moderate voters got reminded just what a nasty angry mean Conservative Party this is, led by a nasty angry mean leader. That positive momentum for the Liberals needs to be kept up. Keep the gap to single digits […]

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The ebb and flow of daily tracking polls.

So, NANOS did a bit of a plunge for those of us who believe Harper and his Conservatives are a blight on this land that need removing from government. We went from a 5 point deficit to an 11 point one. Of course, those who’ve been dismissing the NANOS close polling the last 2 days as outliers are instantly crowing about it now that if favours them – not unexpected. But, on last Friday, the Nanos Poll also had an 11 point lead for the Cons and then quickly fell to 5 over the weekend and held for a couple of days before this rise. I’m not particularly ready to […]

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Nanos repeats 5 point Cons lead on Liberals today.

Another day, and yet another Nanos poll showing still a slim 5 point Conservative lead over the Liberals.

Nik Nanos assessment:

Results of today’s CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives continue their five-point lead over the Liberals at 35% national support. The Liberals stand at 30%, followed by the NDP at 22%, the Bloc Québécois at 7% and the Green Party at 6%. In Ontario, the Conservatives have slipped below the Liberals, while the NDP is gaining momentum in the province, and also in Quebec where the race remains tight between the Conservatives and the Bloc.

The Cons have also slipped into 3rd place into Atlantic Canada (within the MOE) in this new tracking poll as well, I should note.

Right now, the Conservative supporters are screaming “outlier!” on the Nanos poll, and it’s getting ignored by the pundits for their own polls which shows more sizable Conservative leads. Perhaps it is the outlier, but Ottlib makes a good point at their blog – a lot of the parties statements don’t jive with this being a non-race at this point:

According to all of the polls except Nanos the Liberals are toast. They are done, history. Yet today we had Mr. Harper pandering to his base with a silly crime and punishment announcement, Mr. Rae telling voters that we have to end vote splitting on the left to beat the Conservatives, and Mr. Layton stating that he would be willing to form a coalition with the Liberals.

So, Mr. Harper, why are you pandering to your base? You apparently have this election in the bag. You should be talking to everybody but your base at this point to push you over the top to a majority.

Mr. Rae, why are you even talking about a Liberal victory at all? Mr. Duffy et. al. says the Liberals are done so you should not be talking about actually winning this thing. You should instead be plotting strategy for the leadership convention to replace Mr. Dion. C’mon, get with the program!

Mr. Layton, why are you talking about a coalition? According to Peter Donolo and Bruce Anderson you are going to be fighting for second place in this election. You are on the cusp of making the NDP the Official Opposition. Now is not the time to talk coalition. You should be fighting to put yourself over that hump.

At this time in the election campaign there is a massive disconnect with what the media is telling us about it and how the various campaigns are pursuing their respective campaigns. None of them are acting as if the Liberals are way down and possibly facing third party status. Although things can change in a heartbeat during an election campaign the actions of the various parties seems to indicate that this thing is alot closer than we are being lead to believe.

If these numbers were to hold, you’d not see much difference in the current house then you would now.. which is why I was pleased to see this transcript of what Jack Layton said this morning on Canada AM:

Seamus: AS YOU SAID, YOU KNOW YOU’RE TARGETING– NO DIFFERENT BETWEEN THESE TWO OLD PARTIES. YOU ARE TARGETING THE CONSERVATIVES. YOU SAID WE CANNOT HAVE MORE OF THIS KIND OF GOVERNMENT. DO YOU BELIEVE SO STRONGLY IN THAT THAT YOU WOULD ENTERTAIN EVEN THE NOTION OF ENTERING A COALITION WITH THE LIBERALS IN ORDER TO KEEP THE CONSERVATIVES OUT OF PARTY?

Hon. Jack Layton: I HAVE WORKED WITH ANY OTHER PARTY. MAYBE IT GOES BACK TO MY DAYS ON MUNICIPAL COUNCIL. YOU ROLE UP YOUR SLEEVES AND YOU TRY TO SOLVE A PROBLEM. RIGHT NOW THE PROBLEM WE HAVE IS STEPHEN HARPER AND HIS CONSERVATIVES. THEY ARE TAKING THE COUNTRY DOWN THE WRONG PATH. THEY ARE MUCH TOO CLOSE TO GEORGE BUSH-STYLE FOREIGN POLICY WHEN IT COMES TO THE WAR IN MY VIEW.

Seamus: IF YOU ADDED UP THE SEATS THAT YOU COULD GAIN AND THE THE SEATS THAT THE LIBERALS– THAT OUTNUMBERED THE CONSERVATIVES, WOULD YOU CONSIDER A COALITION?

Hon. Jack Layton: HOPEFULLY I’LL SIT DOWN IN THE PRIME MINISTER’S OFFICE AND PULL TOGETHER THE LEADERSHIP OF MY PARTY AND SAY HOW CAN WE BEST GET THAT CHILD CARE PROGRAM THAT WE COMMITTED TO? HOW CAN WE GET THE DOCTORS AND NURSES DRAINED AND DEAL WITH THESE WAIT TIMES?

Seamus: BY WHATEVER MEANS NECESSARY.

Hon. Jack Layton: LET’S MAKE IT HAPPEN.

I’m pleased to hear he’s willing to support the Liberals in a coalition government to take down the Conservative Party (H/T: APOV for the CTV story). I’ve also heard Gilles Duceppes say he’d prefer a Liberal government as well. A Grand Coalition forming perhaps? The ABC movement (Anyone But Conservatives) being taken to heart by the opposition parties? Jack Layton admitting the only way to stop the Harperites is to work with the Liberals instead of tearing at them as he has the past couple of years and support a Dion-led government? Interesting times, folks.

I’ll repeat what I said yesterday: Canada’s most accurate pollster in 2006 and in the Ontario election of 2007 has said this election is far from over.. and the parties are certainly also acting as that to be also the case.

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Not a very good return on all that money you’re spending on attack ads, Cons.

Since Steve over at Far and Wide is away on holidays, I thought I’d take up the poll analysis slack. It appears that the Cons. attempt to go after Dion and the Liberals using some of that money advantage of theirs by spending massive amounts on pre-election (and pre-Green Shift release) attack ads with their “TAX ON EVERYTHING!” fear-mongering in going after the Liberals proposed carbon tax isn’t working with the public:

A new poll suggests the federal Conservatives have lost key support amongst women, Quebecers and Ontario voters. The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey indicates the Tories and Liberals are tied at about 31 per cent of national support… In Quebec, the poll suggests Tories lost a 15-point lead with voters who say they’re neither federalist nor separatist – and are now tied with the Liberals. And in Ontario, it indicates Conservative support has dipped outside the greater Toronto area and especially in the 613 area code.

Of course, some of this drop in support will probably have to do with the Bernier affair, but at the very least, this poll shows that the Liberals certainly haven’t faced a wave of massive opposition from the public over their Green Shift proposal, and it also shows the Cons. have had little return for their investment in attack ads and trying to “misappropriate” Dion and the plan (and you don’t see Dion and the Liberals suing anyone over that, like a certain over-the-top hyper-partisan Prime Minister, now do you?)

When more details and polling data come out on this specific poll for regional splits, I’ll post the #’s here in an update.

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The pepto-bismol of polls

Every time we get polls released each month, we always have at least  one poll where the Conservatives are up on the Liberals from the prior month, who also throw in leadership polls that show Dion doing poorly, and predictably, we get some Liberal bloggers getting heartburn and demanding either the leader resign or else be upended in a palace coup or else claim this shows Canadians won’t listen to Dion’s message in an election – specifically on a carbon tax. The next day, Nanos polling comes out with much more close numbers, and that usually calms the “nervous nellies”.

So once again, we have another poll from Nanos released.

A new Nanos Research-Sun Media poll shows the Opposition Liberals at 34% and the ruling Conservatives at 33%, compared to 36% and 36% respectively in April. The results indicated a statistical tie that could see either party win a minority…The poll, which asked committed voters which party they would vote for, showed the Green Party slowly inching up in the polls from 4% at the 2004 election, to 8% now. The Bloc is at 11%, compared to 10% at the 2006 election, while the NDP dropped three percentage points from 18% in 2006 to 15% now.

If you look at the provincial breakdown, you see a continued large lead in the Maritimes for the Liberals, a continued substantial lead in Ontario. a virtual tie with the Cons in Quebec for 2nd place, and while still trailing in the “West”, the Liberals actually have cut into the Cons. lead and have it in single digits. That type of breakdown to me indicates a far better chance of having a Liberal minority then a Cons. one right now if these numbers held to election day.

While I’m not going to call on people to quit whining, I do think some need to take the aforementioned pepto-bismol.  As I said over here in comments,  people elect political parties in Canada – they don’t elect presidents.  Furthermore, since some are worried about whether we can sell a carbon tax or not – if the majority of the Canadian public are starting from the position that they approve of a carbon tax, as recent polls indicate,  thats an automatic built-in advantage for the Liberals. We don’t need to “sell” it as hard if the public isn’t skeptical of it from the get-go.  Note also that a fair # of the pundits are starting to say this might be a better issue then some are giving Dion and the Liberals credit for. That’s a good thing too if the media are presenting that narrative to the public.

In short, I wouldn’t sweat leadership #’s too much, and I wouldn’t get our noses out of join over an individual poll here and there The election will not be won and the leadership #’s will not move before a general election gets called – these polling #’s seem to indicate that.

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Conservatives hope public cynicism towards their acts means they go unpunished by the electorate.

There is an op-ed in the Toronto Star today penned by Nelson Wiseman,  politicial science professor at the University of Toronto which asks a very good question: “What kind of country has a ruling party that mounts an assault on its election watchdog?”

A question that is difficult to answer. Even in Zimbabwe, where the tyrannical Robert Mugabe and his party rule with an iron fist, the country’s electoral commission wasn’t attacked when it finally released results showing Mugabe had lost his parliamentary majority.  Canada and its governing Conservatives are in very isolated and dubious company indeed.

More importantly is the observation by the professor that such things as this attack on Elections Canada, the Mulroney-airbus affair, and the stonewalling of the parliamentary enquiry on the Chuck Cadman affair by the Conservatives will reinforce the publics cynical view of all parties, if not the electoral system in general.

I can’t help but think that is what the Conservatives want to happen. They want the electorate to believe that “everyone does in-and-out financing”, and they want to make the general electorate cynical towards the whole electoral process.

Why? Because, it will blunt anger toward them, and it perhaps will even depress turnout  in a future election, in a country that is already experiencing falling participation rates in elections.  The combination of low turnout and a cynical electorate, plus using these attacks on them as a way to rally the Conservative base to come out and vote to save them from the federal civil service/Liberal Party/media conspiracy (and the base of the Conservatives will come out and vote, as they believe these bogeyman stories) may prevent the Cons from getting deservedly booted out of office.

It is that  Cons. strategy that needs to be fought against both by the opposition parties and the progressive blogosphere in order to prevent this cynicism from developing amongst the voting public. The job on the anti-Conservative side is to stoke the anger of the public against the acts of this Cons. government, to make the public or the majority of the public want to remove this government.

[email protected]:30AM: A reader from the UK informs me in comments that since the release of the election results, Mugabe and his police have started harrassing and arresting certain election officials with the eye of being able to influence the results of the presidential runoff, so post-election, Zimbabwae is obviously attacking its electoral body with much more venom then Canada’s Consrvatives are.  It still doesn’t say much for Canada’s government when they share places with Zimbabwae in attacking their own country’s electoral commissions, even if Mugabe is more extreme in his case of doing it.

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People in PA aren’t “bitter” at Obama…

…at least not yet, and at least not in this newly released poll from Quinnipac, which shows that Clinton’s lead on Obama from their last poll remains unchanged at 50-44.

Ironically, it might not be Pennslyvania where Obama’s comments hurt him – but in Indiana. A new poll there shows that Clinton has increased her lead from 11 to 16. That being said, a loss in Indiana won’t really hurt Obama all that much, particularly when it’s cancelled out by Obama’s sizable lead in North Carolina, which is unchanged.

My take on this remains the same. This is a totally overblown comment that will affect the race minimally – particularly […]

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Chantal won’t probably mention this poll either..

Decima has the Liberals up by 1 nationally, with them leading in Ontario (though by a smaller margin then Nano’s poll) and also tied in Quebec. I doubt you’ll hear this poll get mentioned directly by Hebert either. We’ll also see if the talking heads on TV bother to mention either one… because it surely destroys the meme of the Liberals being in dire straits… and pundits don’t like it when evidence suggests their opinions aren’t correct.

UPDATE: Added the Decima link for Angelle.

UPDATE [email protected] Saturday, April 12, 10:15AM: Antonio of Fuddle Duddle, who like Chantal Hebert, tells me all the time how the Liberals are doomed in Quebec, […]

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