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Posted by Scott Tribe on October 6, 2008, at 11:50 pm |
..but did she do as well as the polling firm Ekos has her and the Greens in Ontario?
Liberals 33, Cons. 33, NDP 20, Green 15
I think thats the largest # I’ve seen the Greens have in Ontario from any polling firm. If you’ve been following the Ekos daily poll, they would seem to be pulling it from all parties. So the question would be a) How accurate is Ekos methodology, and b) Is it hard or soft support for the Greens? With regards to the 2nd question, Ekos said they found that 74% of Green Party voters would “not likely” change their vote, while 17% said “likely” [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on October 5, 2008, at 3:24 pm |
Do you like Nanos? I like Nanos:
CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 34, LP 30, NDP 19, BQ 10, GP 7 (ending October 4)
If one looks at the regional polls today, we see that the Liberals have taken a decisive lead in Atlantic Canada (not a particular surprise), but the Liberals have now risen to 28% in Quebec, still behind the BQ by a good margin, but well in front of the Conservatives, who continue their nosedive with a 16% showing today. As for Ontario, the Liberals have narrowly edged ahead here within the MOE, and they’re going to need to extend that gap to have any hope [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on September 28, 2008, at 6:25 pm |
If the latest 2 polls released today from Decima and Nanos are an accurate indicator of a Liberal turnaround in the polls and not just statistical noise, then all we engaged in the last blogpost of mine was some fun hypothetical situations.
Harper showed his “not likable streak” last week that he’s more or less masked this election, and that may have helped to trim the poll gap, as progressive moderate voters got reminded just what a nasty angry mean Conservative Party this is, led by a nasty angry mean leader. That positive momentum for the Liberals needs to be kept up. Keep the gap to single [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on September 23, 2008, at 6:46 pm |
So, NANOS did a bit of a plunge for those of us who believe Harper and his Conservatives are a blight on this land that need removing from government. We went from a 5 point deficit to an 11 point one. Of course, those who’ve been dismissing the NANOS close polling the last 2 days as outliers are instantly crowing about it now that if favours them – not unexpected. But, on last Friday, the Nanos Poll also had an 11 point lead for the Cons and then quickly fell to 5 over the weekend and held for a couple of days before this rise. I’m not particularly ready [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on September 22, 2008, at 8:08 pm |
Another day, and yet another Nanos poll showing still a slim 5 point Conservative lead over the Liberals.
Nik Nanos assessment:
Results of today’s CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives continue their five-point lead over the Liberals at 35% national support. The Liberals stand at 30%, followed by the NDP at 22%, the Bloc Québécois at 7% and the Green Party at 6%. In Ontario, the Conservatives have slipped below the Liberals, while the NDP is gaining momentum in the province, and also in Quebec where the race remains tight between the Conservatives and the Bloc.
The Cons have also slipped into 3rd place into Atlantic Canada (within the [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on July 3, 2008, at 12:42 pm |
Since Steve over at Far and Wide is away on holidays, I thought I’d take up the poll analysis slack. It appears that the Cons. attempt to go after Dion and the Liberals using some of that money advantage of theirs by spending massive amounts on pre-election (and pre-Green Shift release) attack ads with their “TAX ON EVERYTHING!” fear-mongering in going after the Liberals proposed carbon tax isn’t working with the public:
A new poll suggests the federal Conservatives have lost key support amongst women, Quebecers and Ontario voters. The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey indicates the Tories and Liberals are tied at about 31 per cent of national support… [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on May 23, 2008, at 9:47 am |
Every time we get polls released each month, we always have at least one poll where the Conservatives are up on the Liberals from the prior month, who also throw in leadership polls that show Dion doing poorly, and predictably, we get some Liberal bloggers getting heartburn and demanding either the leader resign or else be upended in a palace coup or else claim this shows Canadians won’t listen to Dion’s message in an election – specifically on a carbon tax. The next day, Nanos polling comes out with much more close numbers, and that usually calms the “nervous nellies”.
So once again, we have another poll from Nanos [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on May 5, 2008, at 8:25 am |
There is an op-ed in the Toronto Star today penned by Nelson Wiseman, politicial science professor at the University of Toronto which asks a very good question: “What kind of country has a ruling party that mounts an assault on its election watchdog?”
A question that is difficult to answer. Even in Zimbabwe, where the tyrannical Robert Mugabe and his party rule with an iron fist, the country’s electoral commission wasn’t attacked when it finally released results showing Mugabe had lost his parliamentary majority. Canada and its governing Conservatives are in very isolated and dubious company indeed.
More importantly is the observation by the professor that such things as [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on April 15, 2008, at 9:40 am |
…at least not yet, and at least not in this newly released poll from Quinnipac, which shows that Clinton’s lead on Obama from their last poll remains unchanged at 50-44.
Ironically, it might not be Pennslyvania where Obama’s comments hurt him – but in Indiana. A new poll there shows that Clinton has increased her lead from 11 to 16. That being said, a loss in Indiana won’t really hurt Obama all that much, particularly when it’s cancelled out by Obama’s sizable lead in North Carolina, which is unchanged.
My take on this remains the same. This is a totally overblown comment that will affect the race minimally – [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on April 11, 2008, at 8:22 pm |
Decima has the Liberals up by 1 nationally, with them leading in Ontario (though by a smaller margin then Nano’s poll) and also tied in Quebec. I doubt you’ll hear this poll get mentioned directly by Hebert either. We’ll also see if the talking heads on TV bother to mention either one… because it surely destroys the meme of the Liberals being in dire straits… and pundits don’t like it when evidence suggests their opinions aren’t correct.
UPDATE: Added the Decima link for Angelle.
UPDATE 2@ Saturday, April 12, 10:15AM: Antonio of Fuddle Duddle, who like Chantal Hebert, tells me all the time how the Liberals are doomed in [...]
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